Most perceptive web advertisers have seen dwindling click through raters (CTR) on both banners and contextual ads. The rate has been on the decline for several years.
So where are the clicks coming from? I would venture to guess that the bulk of clicks are coming from new Internet users that have not been inured (yet) by the millions of ads that most seasoned web surfing veterans have seen over the course of their daily Internet activities.
When the novelty of annoying ads (like audio and video ads) wears off on these new users, they no longer click.
What this means to the online advertising industry? It means you have lost the long-time dollar spending users. These users are the ones most likely to spend money online. The in-your-face advertising will not work on this demographic of Internet users, subtlety is the key to reaching the users.
Of course, it will take the advertising industry a couple more years to figure this out, which by the time they do, the current click rates are going to bottom out and hard. Much like the print media is finally figuring out that they must embrace the Internet if they are going to survive.
Congratulations advertisers, you have lost the most valuable demographic. What you are getting currently, are Internet newbie's and broke school kids clicking on ads. Ha!
I have been involved with online publishing for over 10 years and I have seen the poor CTR trend for the last five or six years now. I have been warning fellow site owners that the trend will worsen. Some listened and many did not.
The trend I think that will grow will be more about branding and less about click through rates. While everyone else is trying to makes ends meet with pitiful CPC and CPA dollars, I will continue to sell CPM (cost per thousands) advertising and push branding. After all branding is what it is all about, whether it is online, TV or radio. An unforgettable brand will make much more than the easily forgotten (or very annoying) brands.
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